The record contraction in the growth rate of eight core sectors will have its impact on IIP.
However, economists warned that going forward monsoon could play truant; already processed food production is down 14.7 per cent in May and 27.2 per cent in the first two months of this fiscal. Though industrial growth in May was down from 4.4 per cent a year ago, it was quite encouraging as it was more than double the 1.2 per cent in April, when growth turned positive after being in negative territory almost every month since October 2008.
Barring coal and fertiliser, all sectors -- crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in August.
'How low GDP would have been, we don't know.' 'It raises serious questions because so many indicators are pointing to such a sharp decline and GDP estimates are still showing 4 per cent growth.'
'Political parties bring out money they have stashed away and start spending it. How large that spending will be depends on how much money has been stashed. So, you are going to have a strong upside coming from the election effect,' says Pronab Sen.
'Revision of the base year for both CPI and GDP are long overdue.' 'The basic data that went into the 2011-2012 series were mainly from surveys done in 2011 or earlier.' 'We have since seen the emergence of new sectors like platform-based work and online marketing.' 'The employment surveys and the consumption surveys need to reflect these adequately.'
Factory output in June likely rose 5.4 per cent from a year earlier, faster than the 4.7 per cent growth in May, according to a poll of 27 economists.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors - coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement, and electricity - had recorded negative growth in May.
The 30-share barometer dropped by 402.22, or 2.37 per cent to 16,464.75 at 1200 hrs with all sectoral indices trading in the negative zone.
In October 2010, the index of industrial production had expanded by 11.29 per cent.
Barring fertiliser, all seven sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, steel, cement and electricity -- recorded negative growth in July.
Standard Chartered on Friday lowered India's growth forecast for the current financial year to 4.7 per cent from earlier 5.5 per cent, citing "upside risks" to inflation and fiscal deficit.
This growth seen by the consumer goods was led mainly by the durables market, which rose 17.6%, the highest in 11 months
Prices of two-wheelers, passenger and commercial vehicles are set to rise 15-25%
The long-term growth perspective or potential for India is one of the highest in the Asia Pacific region.
Short-term gains are always unpredictable.
The manufacturing sector recorded the double-digit growth rate at 10.4 per cent during August, although down from 11.9 per cent a year ago, the mining sector growth rate improved significantly to 17.1 per cent against a decline of 1.7 per cent in the corresponding month last year.Electricity generation during August grew by 9.2 per cent as compared to 4.1 per cent a year ago.
According to the report, the December inflation will likely continue to peak off to 7.3 per cent.
Expressing disappointment over dismal 0.1 per cent industrial growth rate in April, Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee said the government would take steps to give positive signals to the industry.
Manufactured goods, which have around 80 per cent weight in the index of industrial production, which measures industrial growth, grew by 12.7 per cent in November 2009 compared to 2.7 per cent in the same month a year ago.
It's a clear signal that Indian economy is not out of woods.
In October, the general index had declined by 4.2 per cent, while its manufacturing component went down by an even more alarming 7.6 per cent.
GST stabilisation, DTC implementation and banking reforms are crucial for sustaining high growth for a long period, says Rashesh Shah.
The poor performance of capital goods - a bellwether for future growth - has alarmed most analysts
The economists, who were surveyed, also felt it will take time for banks to make any further reduction in deposit rates
Driven by high growth in the manufacturing sector, the industrial production recorded a high 7.4 per cent growth in November 2003, compared to a mere 4.1 per cent in the same period previous year.
A survey by industry body Ficci has lowered the country's economic growth forecast for 2013-14 fiscal to 5 per cent, from 6 per cent projected in July, indicating tough times ahead.
The government clarified that the majority of industrial establishments had reported nil production, and cautioned that the numbers should not be compared with those of previous months. "It is not appropriate to compare the IIP of April 2020 with that of earlier months, and users may like to observe the changes in the IIP in the following months," said the ministry of statistics & programme implementation.
The output of eight core sectors grew by 11.6 per cent in August, mainly due to an uptick in the production of cement, coal, and natural gas, official data showed on Thursday. The eight infrastructure sectors of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity had contracted by 6.9 per cent in August 2020 due to the nationwide lockdown imposed to control the spread of COVID-19. The eight core industries comprise 40.27 per cent of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP).
"Despite subdued growth in the world economy, India has maintained a GDP growth rate of 7.2 per cent in 2014-15, 7.6 per cent in 2015-16 and 7.1 per cent during April to September of 2016-17," the commerce and industry minister said in a written reply during Question Hour in the Lok Sabha.
She also took a swipe at the Bharatiya Janata Party over its defeat in the just-concluded Himachal Pradesh assembly elections, saying the ruling party's president could not hold on to his home state. "Who is the Pappu now?" she asked.
As many as seven of eight core industries saw a contraction in output in September.
With retail inflation surprising on the upside, the six-member monetary policy committee (MPC) of the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) is expected to increase the repo rate by 35-50 basis points (bps) in the review scheduled for September 28-30. According to economists, the central bank will continue to focus on bringing inflation down even though economic growth has remained sluggish. Data released by the government on Monday showed that the consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation increased by 7 per cent year-on-year (YoY) in August, thus, staying above the upper tolerance limit of the central bank for all the eight months of 2022.
Power generation grew by 14.6 per cent in November.
New Delhi says existing food stocks will be sufficient to contain any food price shock.
The output of eight core sectors declined by 4.6 per cent in February, the steepest contraction in the last six months which experts said could drag the overall industrial production in the month into the negative territory. All the key segments, including coal, crude oil, natural gas, and refinery products, witnessed a decline in production, according to the official data released on Wednesday. The growth rate of the eight infrastructure sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilisers, steel, cement and electricity -- stood at 6.4 per cent in February 2020. Last time in August 2020, the sectors had recorded a negative growth of 6.9 per cent.
Led by a recovery in manufacturing output, industrial production grew by 5.9 per cent in November, 2011, after witnessing a contraction in the previous month, a development that may reverse the negative sentiment amid an economic slowdown.
Production of coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertiliser, steel, cement and electricity contracted. The record contraction in the growth rate of eight core sectors will affect the Index of Industrial Production.
Pointing out that loosening cycle of monetary policy by RBI began only in October, Moody's said, it might not have led to an immediate rebound in domestic consumption. However, the RBI on Thursday stated that monetary measures taken by it were 'appropriate'.
